POLY TRADER
Multi-strategy AI trading bot for Polymarket prediction markets. Combines algorithmic trading with ML and news sentiment analysis on the Polygon blockchain with a $200 USD budget constraint.
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subgraph Data["📊 MARKET DATA"]
WS["🔌 WebSocket"]
REST["🌐 REST API"]
BOOK["📈 Orderbooks"]
end
subgraph Analysis["🔍 ANALYSIS"]
CALC["🧮 YES + NO < $0.97?"]
SPREAD["📉 Spread > 3%?"]
LIQ["💧 Liquidity Check"]
end
subgraph Execute["⚡ EXECUTION"]
SIZE["📐 Position Sizing"]
FOK["🎯 Fill-or-Kill Orders"]
PARALLEL["⚡ Parallel Legs"]
end
subgraph Output["📤 RESULT"]
PNL["💰 Guaranteed P&L"]
LOG[("📄 SQLite Log")]
DISCORD["📢 Discord Alert"]
end
WS --> BOOK
REST --> BOOK
BOOK --> CALC
CALC --> SPREAD
SPREAD --> LIQ
LIQ --> SIZE
SIZE --> FOK
FOK --> PARALLEL
PARALLEL --> PNL
PNL --> LOG
PNL --> DISCORD
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subgraph News["📰 NEWS COLLECTION"]
API["🌐 NewsAPI"]
ARTICLES["📄 24h Lookback"]
end
subgraph Claude["🤖 CLAUDE ANALYSIS"]
PROMPT["📝 Article + Question"]
ENTITIES["🏷️ Extract Entities"]
SENTIMENT["😊 Sentiment -1 to +1"]
CONFIDENCE["📊 Confidence 0-1"]
end
subgraph Fallback["🔄 FALLBACK"]
FINBERT["🧠 FinBERT Batch"]
end
subgraph Signal["📈 SIGNAL GENERATION"]
IMPLIED["📊 Implied Probability"]
DIVERGE["📉 Divergence > 15%?"]
COOLDOWN["⏰ 4hr Cooldown"]
end
subgraph Trade["💹 TRADE"]
GTC["📋 GTC Order"]
LOG[("📄 Trade Log")]
end
API --> ARTICLES
ARTICLES --> PROMPT
PROMPT --> ENTITIES
ENTITIES --> SENTIMENT
SENTIMENT --> CONFIDENCE
CONFIDENCE -->|"< 0.7"| FINBERT
CONFIDENCE -->|"> 0.7"| IMPLIED
FINBERT --> IMPLIED
IMPLIED --> DIVERGE
DIVERGE --> COOLDOWN
COOLDOWN --> GTC
GTC --> LOG
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subgraph Data["📊 HISTORICAL DATA"]
MARKETS["📈 20 Markets × 7 Days"]
HOURLY["⏰ Hourly Samples"]
end
subgraph Features["🔧 FEATURE ENGINEERING"]
PRICE["💰 Price Features
Returns, SMA, RSI"]
VOL["📊 Volume Features
Momentum, Spread"]
SENT["😊 Sentiment Features
FinBERT Score"]
STRUCT["📐 Structure Features
Days to Resolution"]
end
subgraph Train["🧠 TRAINING"]
SPLIT["✂️ TimeSeriesSplit
5 Folds"]
RF["🌲 Random Forest
200 Trees, depth=10"]
CV["📊 Cross-Validation"]
end
subgraph Predict["🎯 PREDICTION"]
PROB["📈 Price > 5% in 4hrs?"]
CONF["📊 Confidence Score"]
FEAT["🔍 Feature Importance"]
end
MARKETS --> HOURLY
HOURLY --> PRICE
HOURLY --> VOL
HOURLY --> SENT
HOURLY --> STRUCT
PRICE --> SPLIT
VOL --> SPLIT
SENT --> SPLIT
STRUCT --> SPLIT
SPLIT --> RF
RF --> CV
CV --> PROB
PROB --> CONF
CONF --> FEAT
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subgraph Monitor["📊 MONITORING"]
YES["📈 YES Price"]
NO["📉 NO Price"]
end
subgraph Entry["📥 ENTRY LOGIC"]
THRESH["💰 Price < $0.45?"]
PROJ["🧮 New Avg Cost"]
PROFIT["📊 Combined < $0.97?"]
end
subgraph Build["🏗️ POSITION BUILD"]
SIZE["📐 $5 Increments"]
GTC["📋 GTC Order"]
TRACK["📊 Cost Basis Tracker"]
end
subgraph Exit["📤 EXIT LOGIC"]
SPIKE["📈 Price > $0.70?"]
NET["💰 Net Profit > 10%?"]
SELL["💵 Execute Exit"]
end
YES --> THRESH
NO --> THRESH
THRESH --> PROJ
PROJ --> PROFIT
PROFIT --> SIZE
SIZE --> GTC
GTC --> TRACK
TRACK --> SPIKE
SPIKE --> NET
NET --> SELL
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subgraph Input["📥 TEXT INPUT"]
ARTICLES["📰 News Articles"]
BATCH["📦 Batch Processing"]
end
subgraph Model["🧠 FINBERT"]
LOAD["📥 Lazy Load Model"]
TOKEN["🔤 Tokenize
Max 512 tokens"]
INFER["⚡ Forward Pass"]
end
subgraph Score["📊 SCORING"]
SOFTMAX["📈 Softmax Outputs"]
CALC["🧮 positive - negative"]
LABEL["🏷️ pos/neg/neutral"]
end
subgraph Aggregate["🔗 AGGREGATION"]
DECAY["⏰ Time Decay
6hr Half-life"]
WEIGHT["⚖️ Weighted Average"]
SUMMARY["📊 Market Sentiment"]
end
ARTICLES --> BATCH
BATCH --> LOAD
LOAD --> TOKEN
TOKEN --> INFER
INFER --> SOFTMAX
SOFTMAX --> CALC
CALC --> LABEL
LABEL --> DECAY
DECAY --> WEIGHT
WEIGHT --> SUMMARY
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subgraph Monitor["📊 DAILY MONITORING"]
PNL["💰 Daily P&L"]
LOSS["📉 Max Loss: $10 (5%)"]
end
subgraph PreTrade["✅ PRE-TRADE CHECKS"]
POS["📐 Position ≤ $10"]
MARKET["📊 Market Exp ≤ $20"]
TOTAL["💼 Portfolio ≤ $160"]
CASH["💵 Cash Reserve ≥ 20%"]
end
subgraph Errors["⚠️ ERROR HANDLING"]
API["🔌 API Failures"]
COUNT["🔢 3 Consecutive?"]
PAUSE["⏸️ Pause 5 min"]
end
subgraph Circuit["🔴 CIRCUIT BREAKER"]
HALT["🛑 Halt Trading"]
WAIT["⏰ 24hr Cooldown"]
ALERT["📢 Discord Alert"]
end
subgraph Report["📋 STATUS"]
STATUS["📊 Cash, Positions, P&L"]
RESET["🔄 Daily Reset"]
end
PNL --> LOSS
LOSS -->|"Exceeded"| HALT
HALT --> WAIT
WAIT --> ALERT
POS --> MARKET
MARKET --> TOTAL
TOTAL --> CASH
API --> COUNT
COUNT --> PAUSE
STATUS --> RESET